重磅数据发布，美联储释放降息大消息

Core Viewpoint - The latest economic data suggests that the Federal Reserve is likely to lower interest rates in the upcoming meeting, despite mixed signals from inflation and employment figures [1][4]. Inflation Data - In August, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by 0.4% month-on-month, double the previous month's rate, and the year-on-year inflation rate rose to 2.9%, up 0.2 percentage points from the previous month, marking the highest level since January [1][2]. - The core CPI, which excludes food and energy, rose by 0.3% month-on-month and 3.1% year-on-year, both in line with expectations [1][2]. Employment Data - The initial jobless claims for the week ending September 6 unexpectedly rose to 263,000, exceeding market expectations of 235,000, and increasing by 27,000 from the previous week [2][4]. - Analysts express concern over the rising jobless claims, indicating potential future layoffs and a weakening labor market, which could influence the Federal Reserve's decisions [4][3]. Market Reactions - Following the release of the economic data, U.S. stock index futures initially dropped but later regained momentum [5]. - U.S. Treasury yields fell, with the benchmark 10-year Treasury yield stabilizing at 4.02% after dipping to 4% during the day [7]. - The U.S. dollar index experienced a decline, reflecting market adjustments to the anticipated Fed policy changes [9]. Federal Reserve Expectations - Market expectations indicate a high probability (89.1%) of a 25 basis point rate cut at the September 17 meeting, with a smaller chance (10.9%) of a 50 basis point cut [4]. - There is speculation that the Fed may consider larger cuts due to the weak labor market and inflation data, with traders pricing in nearly three additional 25 basis point cuts by the end of the year [3][4].