美国通胀数据稳定 美联储2025年进一步降息的可能性增加

Core Points - The U.S. Federal Reserve is expected to lower interest rates next week, with the latest inflation data showing a rise in core inflation in August [1][4] - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by 0.4% month-on-month and 2.9% year-on-year, marking a 0.2 percentage point increase from the previous month, the highest since January [1][2] - The core CPI, excluding food and energy, rose by 0.3% month-on-month and 3.1% year-on-year, aligning with expectations [1][2] Economic Indicators - Initial jobless claims rose unexpectedly to 263,000, exceeding market expectations of 235,000, indicating a weakening labor market [2][4] - Housing costs, which account for about one-third of the CPI, increased by 0.4%, contributing significantly to the overall inflation [2] - The market is pricing in a nearly certain 25 basis point rate cut at the upcoming Federal Reserve meeting on September 17 [2][4] Market Reactions - Following the release of the economic data, U.S. stock index futures initially dropped but later regained momentum [5] - U.S. Treasury yields fell, with the benchmark 10-year yield holding at 4.02% and the 2-year yield dropping to 3.505% [7] - The U.S. dollar index experienced a sharp decline, while spot gold prices saw a short-term increase [9][11]