宣布了！不降息，直线拉升！机构：下一步可能加息

Core Viewpoint - The European Central Bank (ECB) has decided to maintain its key interest rates unchanged, signaling the end of the disinflation process and indicating a potential shift towards tightening monetary policy in the future [4][5]. Interest Rate Decision - The ECB has kept the deposit facility rate at 2.00%, the main refinancing rate at 2.15%, and the marginal lending rate at 2.40% [4]. - This marks the second consecutive meeting where the ECB has opted to keep rates unchanged, aligning with market expectations [4]. Inflation Outlook - Current inflation levels are near the ECB's medium-term target of 2%, with projections for overall inflation at 2.1% in 2025, 1.7% in 2026, and 1.9% in 2027 [4]. - The ECB has revised its inflation forecasts upward for 2025 and 2026 while lowering the forecast for 2027 [4]. - Core inflation, excluding energy and food prices, is expected to be 2.4% in 2025, 1.9% in 2026, and 1.8% in 2027 [4]. Economic Growth Projections - The ECB anticipates a GDP growth rate of 1.2% for 2025, an increase from the previous forecast of 0.9%, while projecting a slight decrease to 1.0% for 2026 [4]. - Economic growth is supported by resilient demand and reduced trade uncertainty, with improvements noted in both manufacturing and services sectors [5]. Monetary Policy Direction - The ECB is prepared to adjust all tools within its mandate to ensure inflation stability at the 2% target and smooth monetary policy transmission [5]. - Analysts suggest that the ECB's decision reflects improved economic data and recent trade agreements, which bolster the regional economic outlook [5][6]. Market Reactions - The EUR/USD exchange rate has been rising, currently reported at 1.17364 [8]. - There is a growing consensus among economists that the ECB's easing cycle may have concluded, with future actions potentially leaning towards interest rate hikes rather than cuts [6][7].