Jobless Claims Spike to +263K, CPI Mild & In-Line

Economic Data Impact - Pre-market futures are up following the release of important economic data, including the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Weekly Jobless Claims, indicating market participants are optimistic about equities [1] - The Dow is up by 158 points, S&P 500 by 19 points, and Nasdaq by 80 points, following all-time closing highs for both the S&P and Nasdaq [2] Job Market Insights - Initial Jobless Claims reached 263K, the highest in almost four years, significantly exceeding the expected 235K and the previous week's revised figure of 236K [4] - Continuing Claims have dropped below 1.94 million for the first time in nearly three months, currently at 1.939 million, suggesting potential upward movement in the coming weeks [6] Inflation Metrics - The August CPI report shows a headline increase of 0.4%, surpassing the anticipated 0.3% and doubling the previous month's 0.2% [7] - Year-over-year CPI stands at 2.9%, up 20 basis points from July, while Core CPI is at 3.1%, aligning with expectations and indicating inflation remains above the Fed's target of 2.0% [8] Federal Reserve Outlook - The likelihood of the Fed cutting interest rates at the upcoming FOMC meeting is high, with discussions centered on a potential cut of either 25 or 50 basis points [10] - If rate cuts occur as anticipated, interest rates could end 2025 between 3.25% and 3.50%, a significant shift from previous years [11]