欧洲央行宣布了！不降息 直线拉升！机构：下一步可能加息

Core Viewpoint - The European Central Bank (ECB) has decided to maintain its key interest rates unchanged, signaling the end of the disinflation process and indicating a potential shift towards tightening monetary policy in the future [1][4]. Interest Rate Decision - The ECB has kept the deposit facility rate at 2.00%, the main refinancing rate at 2.15%, and the marginal lending rate at 2.40% [1][4]. - This marks the second consecutive meeting where the ECB has opted to keep rates unchanged, aligning with market expectations [4]. Inflation Outlook - The ECB stated that current inflation levels are near the medium-term target of 2%, with projections for overall inflation at 2.1% in 2025, 1.7% in 2026, and 1.9% in 2027 [4]. - Core inflation, excluding energy and food prices, is expected to be 2.4% in 2025, 1.9% in 2026, and 1.8% in 2027 [4]. Economic Growth Projections - The ECB has revised its GDP growth forecast for 2025 to 1.2%, up from a previous estimate of 0.9%, while slightly lowering the forecast for 2026 to 1.0% [4]. - The ECB noted that the eurozone economy is growing due to resilient demand, with recent improvements in economic data and reduced trade uncertainties [5]. Monetary Policy Stance - The ECB is prepared to adjust all tools within its mandate to ensure inflation stability at the 2% target and smooth monetary policy transmission [5]. - Analysts suggest that the ECB's decision reflects improved economic data and recent trade agreements, which provide additional support to the regional economic outlook [5]. Market Reactions and Future Expectations - There is a growing consensus among economists that the ECB's easing cycle may have concluded, with some predicting that the next move could be an interest rate hike rather than a cut [6][7]. - The EUR/USD exchange rate has been rising, currently reported at 1.17364, indicating market confidence in the ECB's current stance [7].