Applied Digital Jumps 122% Year to Date: Buy, Sell or Hold the Stock?

Core Insights - Applied Digital (APLD) shares have appreciated 122.2% year to date (YTD), significantly outperforming the broader Zacks Finance sector's return of 12.1% and the Zacks Financial – Miscellaneous Services industry's return of 3.8% [1] - APLD's strong performance is attributed to robust demand for data center infrastructure and a growing focus on energy efficiency within the data center industry [2] - The global AI market is projected to reach $500 billion by 2027, necessitating high-capacity data centers to support AI applications [2] Company Performance - APLD operates data center hosting services with a total capacity of approximately 286 megawatts (MWs) [7] - The Polaris Forge 1 facility is designed to scale up to 1 gigawatt (GW) and is expected to drive long-term growth, with the first 100-MW facility operational by Q4 2025 [9] - APLD has secured lease agreements with CoreWeave for 400 MW, with anticipated lease revenues of approximately $11 billion [11] Industry Trends - Strong spending by hyperscalers is expected to exceed $350 billion by 2025, which is beneficial for APLD as they require high-capacity data centers [3] - The demand for AI infrastructure is increasing, with AI queries requiring significantly more electricity than traditional queries, presenting a growth opportunity for APLD [10] Financial Outlook - APLD reported fiscal 2025 revenues of $144.2 million, a 6% increase from fiscal 2024, primarily driven by Data Center Hosting [12] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for APLD's fiscal 2026 loss has widened to 34 cents per share, indicating a challenging near-term outlook [13] - APLD's stock is currently considered overvalued, trading at a forward price/sales ratio of 14.46X compared to the industry average of 3.58X [15] Investment Considerations - The CoreWeave lease deal enhances revenue visibility, which is favorable for long-term investors, but rising loss estimates and high valuation present risks [18] - APLD currently holds a Zacks Rank 3 (Hold), suggesting that investors may want to wait for a more favorable time to accumulate the stock [19]