央行重启国债买卖操作预期升温 时机或在四季度

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that the People's Bank of China (PBOC) is expected to restart government bond trading operations, with conditions becoming suitable for such actions in the fourth quarter of the year [1][2][3] - The current market sentiment is low, with 10-year and 30-year government bond yields recently falling below 1.8% and 2.1% respectively, prompting speculation about the PBOC's intervention [1][2] - The PBOC has maintained a pause on government bond trading for eight consecutive months, during which the 10-year bond yield has risen to around 1.8%, indicating a significant shift in the bond market compared to earlier in the year [2][3] Group 2 - The PBOC's operations in the bond market are primarily aimed at liquidity management and injecting base currency, which inevitably influences government bond yield trends [3][4] - Analysts suggest that the PBOC's potential resumption of bond trading could stabilize bond prices and mitigate negative feedback loops caused by large-scale redemptions of wealth management products [5] - Despite the anticipation of the PBOC's actions, it is noted that the resumption of bond trading may not fundamentally determine the trend of bond yields, as the core factors are related to the relative value between stocks and bonds [5]