The S&P rally could be running out of steam

Economic Outlook - The S&P year-end target is set at 6,600, indicating limited upside potential but also no significant downside risk from current levels [1] - A potential 5 to 10% market pullback is anticipated in September due to various catalysts, including trade uncertainty [2] Labor Market Dynamics - The unemployment rate for the 18 to 34 demographic stands at approximately 10%, raising concerns about job creation for new college graduates [4] - The labor market's weakness is attributed to trade uncertainties and the impact of artificial intelligence on entry-level job availability [3] - The current job creation requirement to maintain stable unemployment is estimated at 150,000 jobs per month, but the new normal may be reduced to 50,000 to 75,000 jobs, with current figures falling below this threshold [5] Demographic Changes - The retirement of 11,000 baby boomers each month contributes to workforce demographic challenges [4] - A decline in immigration further complicates the labor market situation, impacting job availability and unemployment rates [5]