欧洲央行宣布了：不降息！机构：下一步可能加息

Core Viewpoint - The European Central Bank (ECB) has decided to maintain its key interest rates unchanged, signaling the end of the disinflation process and indicating a potential shift towards tightening monetary policy in the future [1][2]. Interest Rate Decision - The ECB has kept the deposit facility rate at 2.00%, the main refinancing rate at 2.15%, and the marginal lending rate at 2.40% [1]. - This marks the second consecutive meeting where the ECB has opted to keep rates unchanged, aligning with market expectations [2]. Inflation Outlook - Current inflation levels are near the ECB's medium-term target of 2%, with projections for overall inflation at 2.1% in 2025, 1.7% in 2026, and 1.9% in 2027 [2]. - The ECB has adjusted its inflation forecasts upward for 2025 and 2026 while lowering the forecast for 2027 [2]. - Core inflation, excluding energy and food prices, is expected to be 2.4% in 2025, 1.9% in 2026, and 1.8% in 2027 [2]. Economic Growth Projections - The ECB forecasts GDP growth of 1.2% in 2025, an increase from the previous estimate of 0.9%, while projecting a slight decrease to 1.0% in 2026 and maintaining 1.3% for 2027 [2]. Monetary Policy Stance - The ECB is prepared to adjust all tools within its mandate to ensure inflation stability at the 2% target and smooth monetary policy transmission [3]. - Recent improvements in Eurozone economic data and reduced trade uncertainty have bolstered the economic outlook [3]. Market Reactions and Future Expectations - Analysts suggest that the ECB's decision indicates the end of the easing cycle, with some economists predicting that the next move may be an interest rate hike rather than a cut [5][6]. - The ECB has not committed to a specific interest rate path, emphasizing that future decisions will be based on inflation outlooks and economic data [4].