Core Viewpoint - Gold prices have reached a historic high, reflecting increasing economic uncertainty in the U.S. and solidifying gold's status as a key hedge against inflation and currency devaluation [1][4]. Group 1: Gold Price Performance - Spot gold hit a record high of $3,674.27 per ounce this week, marking over 30 nominal record highs this year [1]. - Gold has surpassed the inflation-adjusted peak of $850 per ounce from January 1980, which is approximately $3,590 today [4]. - Since 2025, gold has cumulatively risen nearly 40% [4]. Group 2: Factors Driving Gold Prices - Key drivers for the surge in gold prices include concerns over rising U.S. fiscal deficits and inflation due to large tax cuts and escalating global trade tensions initiated by former President Trump [4]. - The recent spike in gold prices is attributed to investor expectations that the Federal Reserve will lower interest rates in response to slowing job growth and potential economic recession [4][10]. - The global liquidity of the gold market has improved, contributing to a more stable price increase compared to the dramatic rise in the 1980s [5]. Group 3: Global Central Bank Activity - Central banks are increasing gold purchases to diversify foreign exchange reserves and mitigate risks associated with U.S. financial sanctions [5]. - Since the onset of the Russia-Ukraine conflict in 2022, gold prices have nearly doubled, driven by institutional investors increasing their gold holdings [5]. Group 4: Regional Demand Insights - Thailand has emerged as a significant player in the gold market, with local demand expected to grow by 10% to 53.7 tons this year, driven by a 7% appreciation of the Thai baht [8][9]. - The cultural significance of gold in Thailand, where it is viewed as a traditional form of savings and wealth transfer, continues to fuel demand despite rising prices [9]. Group 5: Market Sentiment and Future Outlook - Historical patterns suggest that gold prices typically rise during periods of Federal Reserve rate cuts, especially in non-recessionary periods [8]. - Analysts warn that while current gold prices are high, they remain attractive compared to U.S. equities, indicating a potential for further investment in gold as a protective asset [8][10]. - The ongoing trend of de-dollarization and the increasing role of gold in global financial systems may lead to a new super bull market for gold if U.S. equities face corrections [10].
全球投资者蜂拥入市 黄金突破45年来通胀调整后峰值
智通财经网·2025-09-11 22:30