碳化硅风口上，露笑科技真能受益？

Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in the stock price of Luxshare Technology (002617.SZ) is primarily driven by market speculation regarding the potential use of silicon carbide (SiC) materials in NVIDIA's next-generation Rubin processor, despite the company's current technological and capacity limitations [1][2]. Company Analysis - Luxshare Technology's stock price has increased over 25% since late August, attributed to rumors about NVIDIA's plans to adopt SiC materials for advanced packaging [1]. - The company is currently in the first phase of constructing a 10 billion yuan third-generation power semiconductor industrial park, which aims to produce 240,000 pieces of 6-inch conductive SiC substrates and 50,000 epitaxial wafers annually, but is far from achieving its planned capacity [2][4]. - As of June 30, the investment progress for the SiC industrial park was only 6.3%, with a total investment of 122 million yuan, indicating significant delays in project execution [4][8]. - The technology gap between the 12-inch SiC substrates that NVIDIA plans to use and Luxshare's focus on 6-inch products presents a substantial challenge, as the technical requirements for 12-inch substrates are significantly higher [4][5]. Financial Performance - Luxshare's financial reports indicate that its SiC business remains in an early stage, with minimal revenue contribution. The company reported a mere 95,563.20 yuan in revenue from its SiC-related activities in the first half of the year, which is negligible compared to its overall revenue of 1.752 billion yuan [8][12]. - The company has faced declining profitability, with a net profit margin of 8.2%, down 4.96 percentage points year-on-year, and a comprehensive gross margin of 22.38%, down 2.04 percentage points [12]. - Luxshare's cash flow situation is concerning, with only 9.43 billion yuan in cash available to cover 44% of its current liabilities, indicating increasing financial pressure [8][12]. Market Dynamics - The market may be conflating the applications of SiC in power devices and advanced packaging, leading to inflated expectations regarding Luxshare's capabilities to meet NVIDIA's requirements [5]. - Analysts suggest that even if the rumors about NVIDIA's plans are accurate, the timeline for Luxshare to enter this supply chain is uncertain and could take 3-5 years of technological accumulation and customer validation [5][12]. - The company's traditional business segments are under pressure, with growth stagnating while new business lines, such as SiC, have yet to scale up, creating a challenging transition period [9][12].