深夜直线跳水，美联储突发

Group 1: Inflation Data - The August CPI in the U.S. increased by 2.9% year-on-year, matching expectations and slightly up from the previous value of 2.7% [3] - The core CPI, excluding food and energy, also rose by 3.1% year-on-year, consistent with expectations [3] - The super core CPI, which excludes housing and energy service prices, showed a slowdown in growth to 3.52% year-on-year [3] Group 2: Employment Data - Initial jobless claims for the week ending September 6 reached 263,000, the highest level in nearly four years, significantly exceeding analyst expectations of 235,000 [5][6] - The August non-farm payrolls report indicated a mere increase of 22,000 jobs, continuing a trend of significantly slowed job growth [6] Group 3: Market Reactions - Following the release of the CPI and employment data, traders adjusted their bets on the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions, with the probability of a 25 basis point cut in September rising to 88.1% [5][6] - The U.S. dollar index fell sharply, while U.S. Treasury yields dropped, with the 10-year yield dipping below 4% for the first time since April [9] Group 4: Economic Outlook - Analysts suggest that the inflation report indicates persistent inflation in the U.S., with ongoing service cost increases potentially exerting lasting pressure on overall inflation [5] - The impact of tariffs on consumer prices is noted, with a slow transmission effect observed [11]