突破1980年通胀调整峰值！现货黄金再创历史新高

Core Viewpoint - The price of spot gold has reached a new historical high of $3,674.27 per ounce, marking a significant increase of approximately 5% this month and nearly 40% year-to-date, highlighting gold's status as a safe-haven asset amid ongoing macroeconomic uncertainties [1] Group 1: Gold Price Dynamics - Spot gold prices have surpassed the inflation-adjusted peak of $850 per ounce from January 21, 1980, which is approximately $3,590 today [1] - The recent surge in gold prices is attributed to a combination of rising unemployment claims and persistent high core CPI growth, which have reinforced gold's appeal [1][2] - The market has observed a significant increase in institutional demand, with the total value of gold reserves in the London vaults exceeding $1 trillion last month [3] Group 2: Economic Indicators and Market Sentiment - Recent economic data indicates a cooling U.S. economy, with the August Consumer Price Index (CPI) rising by 2.9%, the largest increase in seven months, and non-farm payrolls adding only 22,000 jobs [2] - The market is increasingly concerned about stagflation, as evidenced by the FedWatch tool indicating traders fully expect a 25 basis point rate cut from the Federal Reserve [2] - Analysts suggest that the current gold price rally is characterized by lower volatility compared to the sharp spikes seen in 1980, due to enhanced market liquidity and the accessibility of gold through ETFs [3] Group 3: Central Bank Policies and Global Trends - Central banks are diversifying their foreign reserves, with gold's share in reserves rising since the Russia-Ukraine conflict, making it the second-largest reserve asset globally [4] - Historical trends show that periods of interest rate cuts typically enhance gold's attractiveness as an investment [4] - Goldman Sachs projects that gold prices could reach $3,700 by the end of 2025 and potentially exceed $4,000 by mid-2026, with scenarios suggesting prices could even touch $4,500 to $5,000 if there is a significant outflow from dollar assets [3]