欧洲央行维持利率不变，多重因素仍将给欧元区经济带来不确定性

Core Viewpoint - The European Central Bank (ECB) decided to maintain its three key interest rates unchanged during its monetary policy meeting, which was the first after the recent US-EU trade agreement, amid concerns about economic growth and inflation stability in the Eurozone [1][2]. Group 1: Monetary Policy Decisions - The ECB's deposit facility rate, main refinancing rate, and marginal lending rate remain at 2.00%, 2.15%, and 2.40% respectively [2]. - Since starting the rate cut process in June 2024, the ECB has lowered rates eight times, with the last decision in July 2024 to keep rates unchanged [2]. Group 2: Economic Forecasts - The ECB maintains a medium-term inflation target of 2% for the Eurozone, with projected overall inflation rates of 2.1% in 2025, 1.7% in 2026, and 1.9% in 2027 [2]. - The latest economic growth forecast for the Eurozone is 1.2% for 2025, an increase from the previous prediction of 0.9% made in June [2]. - The Eurozone economy grew by 0.7% in the first half of the year, supported by resilient demand [2]. Group 3: Risks and Uncertainties - Higher tariffs, a stronger euro, and increased global competition are expected to suppress growth in the Eurozone [3][4]. - Geopolitical tensions and potential deterioration in international trade relations pose significant uncertainties that could further inhibit exports, investment, and consumption [4]. - The recent political turmoil in France, including the resignation of former Prime Minister Béru, raises concerns about debt levels and political stability in the Eurozone's second-largest economy [4]. Group 4: Future Challenges - The ECB's primary challenge may shift from inflation to political and fiscal risks within Europe [5]. - Analysts suggest that while the threshold for further rate cuts is high, the ECB may be forced to reconsider its stance in the coming months if inflation remains below target or economic growth stagnates [4].