中信证券：供应风险转向国内 锂价底部有支撑

Core Viewpoint - The report from CITIC Securities indicates that by Q2 2025, overseas lithium resource projects will experience an increase in volume but a decrease in price, reflecting a challenging operational environment [1] Group 1: Market Dynamics - Since Q3, domestic carbonate lithium prices have rebounded from a low point, leading to increased production enthusiasm in overseas lithium mines [1] - The overall production guidance for the fiscal year 2026 is expected to grow, although the process of clearing overseas supply may be delayed [1] Group 2: Supply Risks and Demand - Current supply risks related to domestic lithium mica have not been eliminated, which, combined with stronger-than-expected downstream demand, suggests a lower risk of significant price declines for lithium [1] - If there are unexpected disruptions in mica production, it could lead to a restoration of the supply-demand balance and a potential price rebound [1] Group 3: Investment Opportunities - The report recommends focusing on low-cost targets and companies with high-quality mining assets that may benefit from the rebound in lithium prices as they touch the bottom [1]