纯碱：价格持续探底，反内卷从何下手？

Core Viewpoint - The chemical industry, particularly the soda ash sector, is entering a new downward price cycle due to increased production capacity and other factors, leading to negative profit margins for the industry by 2024 [1][3]. Supply Side - Soda ash production capacity accelerated in 2023, surpassing 40 million tons (up 19.5% year-on-year), with projections to reach 43.45 million tons in 2024, marking a 24.6% increase over two years [4]. - The production volume is also expected to rise, reaching 36.21 million tons in 2024 (up 21.4% year-on-year), the highest growth rate since 2007 [4]. - The structure of production capacity is changing significantly, with the proportion of natural soda ash increasing from 5% in 2022 to 16% in 2024, and further to 19% in the first seven months of 2025 [4]. - Major contributors to this increase include projects from companies like Boyuan Chemical and China Salt Chemical, which leverage the cost advantages of natural soda ash [4]. Demand Side - The demand for soda ash is primarily driven by the glass industry, with flat glass accounting for 46% of apparent consumption in 2024, translating to 35.96 million tons [2]. - The real estate sector is a significant factor affecting demand, with construction area declining by 12.7% year-on-year in 2024, impacting flat glass demand negatively [5]. - However, automotive glass demand is providing some support, with a 10.5% increase in vehicle production in the first seven months of 2025 [6]. - The photovoltaic glass sector is experiencing short-term fluctuations but is expected to maintain long-term growth, with production projected to reach 27.34 million tons in 2024 (up 30.92% year-on-year) [6]. Competitive Landscape - The cost differences among various production methods are significant, with natural soda ash having the lowest unit cost at approximately 1000-1200 RMB/ton in 2024, compared to 1400-1600 RMB/ton for the joint alkali method and 1500-1700 RMB/ton for the ammonia-soda method [6]. - Regions rich in natural soda ash and raw materials, such as Inner Mongolia and Henan, have a clear cost advantage, which is expected to influence the competitive dynamics in the industry [6]. Industry Outlook - The industry is facing pressure to optimize supply, with a focus on phasing out high-cost production methods and controlling low-level capacity expansion [7]. - Demand recovery is anticipated through potential easing of real estate policies and a return to growth in the photovoltaic sector [7]. - Policy guidance is crucial for enhancing energy efficiency standards and promoting the development of green production methods like natural soda ash [7].