Oracle(US:ORCL) Ge Long Hui A P P·2025-09-12 01:26Core Viewpoint - Oracle's stock experienced a significant drop of over 6% after a 36% surge, raising concerns about its reliance on a single client, OpenAI, for future growth [1][2] Group 1: Financial Performance and Projections - Oracle projected a 77% increase in cloud infrastructure revenue to $18 billion for the fiscal year 2026, exceeding Wall Street expectations [1] - The company anticipates revenue growth to reach $32 billion, $73 billion, $114 billion, and $144 billion over the next four years [1] - Oracle's unfulfilled performance obligations (contracted but unrecognized revenue) reached $455 billion, a year-on-year increase of 359% [1] Group 2: Client Concentration and Risks - Analysts raised concerns about Oracle's high client concentration risk, as a significant portion of its backlog orders is reportedly from OpenAI [1][2] - Morgan Stanley estimated that only about 10% of the $455 billion in RPO will be recognized as revenue within the next 12 months [2] - The majority of new orders are related to AI model training, which typically has lower profit margins [2] Group 3: Infrastructure and Funding Concerns - There are doubts regarding Oracle's ability to fund the astronomical infrastructure investments required for the large orders [2] - Analysts highlighted that the future revenue from these large orders may take a long time to materialize, adding to the uncertainty surrounding Oracle's financial outlook [2]