Raw Materials and Spot Prices - As of September 11, the market price of butadiene in Shandong is 9475 yuan/ton, down by 75 yuan/ton; CIF price for butadiene in China is 1095 USD/ton, unchanged; the market price for styrene-butadiene rubber (BR9000) in Shandong Qilu Petrochemical is 11850 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price difference for styrene-butadiene rubber-Taiwan mix is -3200 yuan/ton, unchanged; basis is 145 yuan/ton, up by 65 yuan/ton [1] Production and Operating Rates - In August, China's butadiene production was 456,800 tons, up by 0.7% month-on-month; styrene-butadiene rubber production was 135,700 tons, up by 5% month-on-month; semi-steel tire production was 58.06 million units, down by 1.1% month-on-month, but up by 4.4% year-on-year for January to August; full-steel tire production was 13.03 million units, up by 1% month-on-month, and up by 2.8% year-on-year for January to August [2] - As of September 11, the operating rates in the styrene-butadiene rubber industry show differentiation: butadiene industry operating rate is 68.3%, down by 0.2% month-on-month; high-styrene butadiene rubber industry operating rate is 73.5%, down by 3.5% month-on-month; semi-steel tire sample manufacturers' operating rate is 72.6%, up by 8.5% month-on-month; full-steel tire sample manufacturers' operating rate is 66.3%, up by 9.2% month-on-month [2] Inventory Levels - As of September 10, butadiene port inventory is 25,600 tons, down by 5,350 tons; styrene-butadiene rubber factory inventory is 26,300 tons, up by 1,650 tons, an increase of 6.7% month-on-month; traders' inventory is 8,210 tons, up by 950 tons, an increase of 13.1% month-on-month [3] Market Insights - According to Longzhong Information on September 11, during the current cycle (September 4-10), domestic butadiene sample total inventory slightly decreased, with a week-on-week decline of 9.04%. Among them, sample enterprise inventory decreased slightly by 0.81% week-on-week, with sporadic device shutdowns or reduced load, and no significant inventory pressure from domestic manufacturers. Sample port inventory decreased by 17.29% week-on-week, with limited import shipments arriving at the port during the week, and downstream raw material inventory being normally digested, leading to a decline from last week's high point. However, there are still expectations for incoming shipments and some trade volumes for sale, necessitating cautious monitoring of inventory changes [4] Analysis - On September 11, BR followed the daily fluctuations of natural rubber, with the main contract for synthetic rubber BR2510 closing at 11,655 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.55% compared to the previous day's settlement price. On the cost side, there is no significant pressure on butadiene supply in early to mid-September, while some downstream industries are expected to see a decline in operating rates. However, with concentrated arrivals of European shipments in September, the expected import volume remains relatively abundant, making it difficult for port inventory to drop to previous low levels. On the supply side, Haopu New Materials and Taiwan Rubber's styrene-butadiene rubber facilities are scheduled for maintenance in September, and some facilities in East China are also expected to undergo maintenance in October, indicating a clear expectation of reduced supply in the short to medium term. On the demand side, overall capacity utilization rates are recovering, and companies are expected to stock up inventory ahead of the National Day holiday, with capacity utilization running at a relatively high level. Overall, BR cost support is limited, and the supply-demand situation for BR remains loose, likely following fluctuations in natural rubber and commodities [5]
合成橡胶：天胶震荡偏弱 使得BR上方承压
Jin Tou Wang·2025-09-12 02:07