市场对央行重启国债买卖预期升温，四季度或成关键窗口

Core Viewpoint - The recent decline in government bond futures has led to increased expectations for the People's Bank of China (PBOC) to resume government bond trading operations, particularly in the fourth quarter, to release medium- to long-term funds and improve market sentiment [1][2]. Group 1: Market Conditions - The yields on 10-year and 30-year government bonds have fallen below 1.8% and 2.1%, respectively, indicating a significant rise in yields since the beginning of the year [1]. - The bond market sentiment is currently bearish, with the 10-year government bond yield recently rising to around 1.8% [2]. - The PBOC has suspended government bond trading operations for eight consecutive months, leading to a notable shift in the bond market compared to earlier in the year [2]. Group 2: PBOC Operations - The PBOC's resumption of government bond trading is seen as having suitable conditions, although the urgency is not strong at the moment [1][6]. - The PBOC has previously indicated that it would consider resuming operations based on market supply and demand conditions [1]. - The PBOC's operations are primarily aimed at managing liquidity and influencing government bond yield trends [2][3]. Group 3: Analyst Perspectives - Analysts believe that the resumption of government bond trading could stabilize bond prices and mitigate negative feedback loops from large-scale redemptions of wealth management products [6]. - Some analysts argue that the PBOC's bond trading operations are more flexible and effective compared to other liquidity management tools like reverse repos [5]. - The current market dynamics suggest that the resumption of bond trading may not fundamentally alter the interest rate trends, as the core factors are related to the stock-bond valuation relationship [6].