Sugar Prices Gain as Crude Oil Rallies

Core Insights - Sugar prices have recently increased due to a rise in WTI crude oil prices, which may lead to a shift in sugar production towards ethanol, potentially reducing sugar supplies [1] Group 1: Sugar Production and Supply - Brazil's sugar production in the first half of August increased by 16% year-on-year to 3,615 million tons, with the percentage of sugarcane crushed for sugar rising to 55% from 49.15% the previous year [2] - Brazil's government crop forecasting agency, Conab, reduced its 2025/26 sugar production estimate by 3.1% to 44.5 million tons, citing lower sugarcane yields due to drought and excessive heat [5] - Covrig Analytics reported that Brazilian sugar mills are currently prioritizing sugar production over ethanol, leading to increased cane crushing for sugar [3] Group 2: Global Sugar Market Outlook - The International Sugar Organization (ISO) forecasts a global sugar deficit of 231,000 tons for the 2025/26 season, marking the sixth consecutive year of deficits, although this is an improvement from a 4.88 million ton shortfall in 2024/25 [4] - The USDA projected a record global sugar production of 189.318 million tons for the 2025/26 season, with ending stocks expected to rise by 7.5% year-on-year to 41.188 million tons [6] - Expectations for abundant sugar supplies are currently undermining sugar prices, with a projected global sugar surplus of 7.5 million tons for the 2025/26 season, the largest in eight years [6]