德邦证券：IMO净零法案即将提交 关注绿色甲醇投资机会

Core Viewpoint - The International Maritime Organization (IMO) has approved a legally binding net-zero emissions framework for the global shipping industry, which is expected to be formally adopted in October 2025 and come into effect in 2027, significantly expanding the market for green methanol [1][2]. Group 1: IMO Net-Zero Framework - The IMO net-zero framework will focus on "marine fuels" and will impact the entire supply chain, including ship power development, new ship design, construction, green fuel preparation, supply, bunkering, certification, and crew training [2]. - Ships over 5000 GT will be required to calculate their fuel greenhouse gas intensity (GFI) annually and compare it with the framework's requirements, with compliant ships potentially receiving financial rewards [2]. Group 2: Green Methanol Demand and Supply - As of February 2025, there are 50 operational methanol-fueled ships with a total deadweight of approximately 3.04 million tons, and 250 new orders totaling about 22.77 million tons, indicating a significant future demand for methanol fuel [3]. - The global demand for methanol fuel is projected to reach approximately 6.79 million tons with the new ship orders, while the global green methanol production capacity is only expected to be around 700,000 tons in 2024, leading to a potential mismatch in supply and demand [3]. Group 3: Green Methanol Production Capacity - As of August 2025, there are 255 global projects related to renewable and low-carbon methanol, with a projected total capacity of 51.9 million tons by 2030, and China holds a 55% share of these projects [4]. - China is advancing rapidly in green methanol projects, with 173 signed or registered projects and a planned capacity of 53.46 million tons per year, indicating a significant increase in production capacity [4]. Group 4: Investment Opportunities - The continuous growth of global green methanol projects highlights its importance in supporting energy transition and decarbonization in shipping and industrial sectors, with China positioned to lead in green methanol development [5]. - Companies with leading technologies or high certainty of production are recommended for investment to capture early advantages in the market [5][6].