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国泰海通:从全球视角看电力供需 煤电仍是压舱石
智通财经网·2025-09-12 06:41

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the fundamental reason for the frequent global power shortages is the rapid growth in global electricity demand, while the supply side's structural bottlenecks have not been effectively resolved. Traditional energy generation, represented by coal power, will remain a stabilizing force in the global electricity system in the medium to long term [1][3] - Global electricity demand is expected to grow at a rate of 4.4% in 2024, significantly outpacing the global GDP growth of 2.9%. This growth is driven by three deep-seated factors: deep electrification in the industrial sector, rapid expansion of data centers driven by artificial intelligence, and increased extreme weather events due to global climate change [1][2] - The supply side of the electricity market faces structural bottlenecks, with renewable energy sources like wind and solar power unable to provide stable support for electricity demand due to their intermittent nature. Issues such as aging grid infrastructure and weak regional dispatch capabilities further exacerbate the disconnect between electricity generation and availability [2][3] Group 2 - Traditional energy generation, particularly coal power, is being reconsidered as a necessary stabilizing force to address the growing electricity supply gap. The U.S. is expected to restart coal power generation in 2025, marking a significant shift in energy development strategies among developed countries [3] - The demand for coal resources remains high in developing countries, while developed countries are also adjusting their energy strategies, indicating that the peak pressure for coal phase-out may have passed [3]