Macro News - The U.S. August CPI adjusted month-on-month recorded 0.4%, the highest since January, exceeding market expectations of 0.3% [1] - The U.S. August unadjusted CPI year-on-year recorded 2.9%, also the highest since January, in line with market expectations [1] - The CPI increase in August is the largest year-on-year growth in seven months, but it is not expected to prevent the Federal Reserve from cutting interest rates next week due to a weak job market [1] - According to CME's "FedWatch," the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September is 93.9%, while the probability of a 50 basis point cut is 6.1% [1] - The probability of cumulative rate cuts of 25 basis points in October is 7.6%, 50 basis points is 86.8%, and 75 basis points is 5.6% [1] Institutional Views - The weak performance of U.S. August employment data and stable core CPI year-on-year inflation expectations indicate increasing support among Federal Reserve officials for rate cuts [1] - Continuous pressure from Trump to replace Federal Reserve officials may lead to market expectations of consecutive 25 basis point cuts in September, October, December, and January [1] - Ongoing geopolitical risks, such as the Russia-Ukraine conflict, and the continuous purchasing of gold by central banks globally may lead to an upward trend in precious metal prices [1] - Support levels for gold are identified around 800-810, with resistance levels around 840-850 [1]
宏源期货：降息预期与地缘风险双支撑 贵金属价格易涨难跌
Jin Tou Wang·2025-09-12 07:01