智通财经网·2025-09-12 07:01Core Viewpoint - The livestock industry is undergoing significant regulatory changes aimed at controlling pig production capacity, with a focus on improving the supply-demand balance and potentially increasing pig prices in the future [1][4]. Group 1: Event Overview - The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs will hold a meeting on September 16 to discuss pig production capacity control, with participation from 25 major pig farming companies, including Muyuan Foods and Wens Foodstuff Group [1]. - The meeting will cover the current production situation, measures taken by companies to comply with capacity control, and plans for the second half of the year and next year [1]. Group 2: Policy Developments - Since late May, multiple policies have been introduced to regulate the pig farming industry, including a halt on expanding breeding sows and controlling the weight of pigs for slaughter [2]. - A target has been set to reduce the number of breeding sows by approximately 1 million, bringing the total down to 39.5 million [2]. Group 3: Implementation Status - The average slaughter weight of pigs has been decreasing, with a reported decline of 3.65% as of early September [3]. - Muyuan Foods plans to reduce its breeding sow inventory from 3.431 million to 3.3 million by the end of the year, a reduction of 3.82% [3]. - Many provinces have reported a significant decrease in the movement of pigs, with companies ceasing to issue feeding tickets [3]. Group 4: Price Outlook - The current breeding sow inventory stands at 40.42 million, slightly above the target of 39.5 million, indicating room for further reductions [4]. - Pig prices have been fluctuating at low levels, with August averages below 14 yuan per kilogram and recent prices in Guangxi dropping to below 12.5 yuan per kilogram [4]. - If pig prices continue to decline, it may trigger a new round of active capacity reduction, alongside passive reductions driven by policy, leading to an improved supply-demand situation [4]. Group 5: Investment Recommendations - The pig farming sector is currently undervalued, and companies like Lihua Agricultural Technology are recommended for investment due to their stable operations and growth potential in pig production [5]. - Lihua's pig output is expected to exceed 1 million heads in 2024 and reach 2 million in 2025, with a significant reduction in production costs anticipated [5].