Soybeans Fall Back on Wednesday

Market Overview - Soybean prices have declined, with contracts falling by 5 to 6 cents, and the national average cash bean price reported at $9.47 1/2, down 5 ¾ cents [1] - Soymeal futures experienced losses ranging from $2.80 to $5.30, while soy oil futures increased by 36 to 54 points [1] Export Sales Expectations - Analysts anticipate soybean sales for the week of September 4 to be between 0.4 and 1.6 million metric tons (MMT) for the 2025/26 season [2] - Soybean meal sales are projected to range from 50,000 to 900,000 metric tons, with bean oil sales expected to be between 0 and 16,000 metric tons [2] Crop Production Insights - The upcoming monthly Crop Production report is expected to show a yield drop of 0.3 bushels per acre (bpa) to an average of 53.3 bpa, with total production estimated at 4.271 billion bushels (bbu), reflecting a reduction of 21 million bushels (mbu) [3] - The USDA is expected to revise ending stocks for the 2024/25 marketing year to 328 mbu, a decrease of 2 mbu compared to August, while new crop stocks are projected at 288 mbu, also down 2 mbu from August [3] Argentina Production Forecast - Argentina's soybean production is estimated at 47 MMT, which is a decrease of 2.5 MMT from the previous year, attributed to lower acreage [4] - Specific closing prices for soybeans on September 25 include $10.05 1/2 for nearby contracts, $10.25 1/4 for November 25 contracts, and $10.44 3/4 for January 26 contracts, all reflecting a decline of 6 cents or 5 ¾ cents [4]