Core Viewpoint - DBS has a long-term optimistic outlook for the Hong Kong stock market despite short-term profit-taking pressures and geopolitical concerns, driven by sectors like artificial intelligence, batteries, and biotechnology [1] Group 1: Market Performance and Outlook - The Hong Kong stock market has risen 4.5% since September, reaching a new high for the year, despite performance divergence among companies and ongoing deflation concerns in mainland China [1] - The influx of southbound capital is attributed to a pullback in A-shares after a rapid rise and regulatory actions to cool the market [1] - The Hang Seng Index (HSI) valuation has become more attractive amid a global market rally driven by liquidity, despite slight earnings downgrades for mid-term corporate performance [1][2] Group 2: Target Adjustments and Valuation - DBS raised its 12-month target for the HSI to 28,000 points from 26,000 points, reflecting updated earnings forecasts for 2025 and 2026 at -2.2% and 12.1% respectively [2] - The valuation multiple forecast was increased from 11.6 times to 13 times, assuming the HSI's valuation gap with the MSCI All Country World Index will return to its ten-year average [2] - The current risk premium model aligns with the new target, currently at 5.8%, with expectations that it will compress to 5.4%-5.5% [2] Group 3: Sector Preferences and Stock Picks - DBS maintains a preference for technology and non-bank financial sectors, with ongoing anti-involution measures creating trading opportunities in solar and battery sectors [3] - The consumer sector's valuation has become reasonable, upgraded to neutral, with a stock pick change from Zhongchao Innovation (03931) to Trip.com Group (09961) to capture the recovery in the tourism industry ahead of the National Day holiday [3]
星展：上调恒指12个月目标至28,000点 乐观情景下可达30,500点
智通财经网·2025-09-12 09:36