WTO总干事证实美国平均关税18.4%，全球贸易面临压力测试｜全球贸易观察

Group 1 - WTO analysis indicates that approximately 72% of global goods trade still operates under basic "Most Favored Nation" tariff conditions, a decrease from 80% at the beginning of the year, and this percentage may continue to decline [1][4] - The global goods trade volume is projected to grow by 0.9% this year, which is significantly lower than the pre-tariff prediction of 2.7%, but an improvement from the April forecast of a 0.2% contraction [3] - The average actual tariff rate in the U.S. has risen to 17.4%, the highest level since 1935, due to new tariffs implemented this year [6] Group 2 - The global trade system is undergoing a stress test, with the U.S. facing economic downturn risks, and the growth rate is expected to slow down to 1.2%-1.3% in the third and fourth quarters from over 3% in the second quarter [6][7] - The U.S. economy's slowdown is largely seen as temporary compared to other developed economies, but risks remain, including potential further depreciation of the dollar and a slowdown in productivity growth [7] - The new tariff policies are expected to reduce the openness of the U.S. economy, with projections indicating a 1.7 percentage point decrease in the share of goods exports in GDP by 2030 compared to earlier forecasts [7]