Xin Lang Cai Jing·2025-09-12 10:37Core Viewpoint - The Chinese liquor industry is entering a period of accelerated clearing in 2025, with significant declines in production, profits, and increasing inventory pressures among distributors [1][2]. Industry Overview - In the first half of 2025, the total production of the liquor industry was 1.9159 million kiloliters, a year-on-year decrease of 5.8%. Sales revenue reached 330.42 billion yuan, a slight increase of 0.19%, while profits fell to 87.687 billion yuan, down 10.93% [1]. - 58.1% of distributors reported increased inventory, with over half facing price inversion issues, indicating weak terminal consumption and reduced willingness to collect payments from distributors [1][2]. Company Performance - Among 19 listed liquor companies, 13 experienced revenue declines, accounting for 68% of the total, with a significant slowdown in revenue growth compared to the previous year [1][2]. - The market is increasingly favoring leading companies, with the top six liquor firms accounting for 47% of revenue and 62.2% of total profits in 2024, marking a 13 percentage point increase over five years [2]. Profitability Trends - The wholesale price index for liquor has been declining, with notable drops in prices for major brands like Moutai and Wuliangye, indicating a broader trend of price decreases across the industry [3][4]. - Only three companies saw an increase in gross margin, while 16 experienced declines, with the most significant drops reported by Jiugui Liquor, Shede Liquor, and Kouzi Liquor [4][7]. - The average net profit margin for many companies has also decreased, with Jiugui Liquor, Shunxin Agriculture, and Water Well Square showing the most significant declines [4][7]. Market Dynamics - The growth logic of the liquor industry is changing, with a shift from "volume reduction and price increase" to simultaneous declines in both volume and price [2][3]. - Smaller liquor companies, particularly those with revenues below 5 billion yuan, are facing the most severe impacts, entering a destocking phase earlier than larger firms [4][5][6]. Financial Highlights - In the first half of 2025, the total net profit for 19 listed liquor companies was 97.003 billion yuan, with Moutai and Wuliangye accounting for 69% of this total [8]. - Six leading liquor companies contributed to 94% of the total net profit, while 11 companies reported net profits below 1 billion yuan, with some even incurring losses [8].