Xin Lang Cai Jing·2025-09-12 10:34Industry Overview - The Chinese liquor industry is entering a period of accelerated clearing in 2025, with total production in the first half of 2025 at 1.9159 million kiloliters, a year-on-year decrease of 5.8% [1] - Sales revenue reached 330.42 billion yuan, showing a slight increase of 0.19% year-on-year, while profits fell to 87.687 billion yuan, down 10.93% year-on-year [1] - 58.1% of distributors reported increased inventory, with over half facing price inversion issues, indicating weak terminal consumption and reduced willingness for payment collection among distributors [1] Company Performance - Among 19 listed liquor companies, 13 experienced revenue declines, accounting for 68% of the total, with a significant slowdown in revenue growth compared to the previous year [1] - The market is increasingly concentrating on leading companies, with the top six liquor firms accounting for 47% of revenue in 2024, up 13 percentage points from five years ago, and 62.2% of total profits, also an increase from five years ago [2] - The median revenue growth rate for the top six liquor companies with over 10 billion yuan in revenue was 2.36%, while the median for the 13 companies below this threshold was -16.89% [2] Price Trends - The wholesale price index for Chinese liquor has been declining from September 2024 to August 2025, with notable drops in prices for famous brands [3] - The price of Feitian Moutai fell by 840 yuan to 1820 yuan, while other brands like Wuliangye and Guojiao 1573 also saw significant price reductions [3] Financial Indicators - The total contract liabilities of 19 listed liquor companies decreased by 9.01 billion yuan to 37.497 billion yuan in the first half of the year [3] - Moutai's contract liabilities dropped from 9.993 billion yuan to 5.507 billion yuan, a decrease of 44.89%, reflecting adjustments in direct sales channel quotas [3][4] - Other companies like Jiu Gui Jiu, Gu Qing Gong Jiu, and Yi Li Te also saw contract liabilities decrease by over 30% [4]