Bear of the Day: Ashland (ASH)

Core Insights - Ashland Inc. is facing a challenging macroeconomic environment, with expected earnings decline of 18.9% in fiscal 2025 [1][9] - The company has a market capitalization of $2.4 billion and operates in over 100 countries across various markets [1] Financial Performance - In fiscal Q3 2025, Ashland reported earnings of $1.04, missing the Zacks Consensus Estimate by $0.11 [2] - Sales fell 15% year-over-year to $463 million, impacted by portfolio optimization which reduced sales by approximately $53 million, or 10% [3] - Excluding optimization effects, sales declined by 5% [3] - All main segments experienced falling sales: Life Sciences down 17% to $162 million, Personal Care down 16% to $147 million, Specialty Additives down 13% to $131 million, and Intermediates down 8% to $33 million [4] Outlook and Estimates - Ashland updated its fiscal 2025 outlook, indicating a stable but subdued macroeconomic environment with mixed demand trends across segments [5] - Analysts have cut earnings estimates for fiscal 2025 from $3.77 to $3.61, reflecting an 18.9% decline from last year's earnings of $4.45 [7] - For fiscal 2026, estimates have also been reduced from $4.71 to $4.39 [7] Market Performance - Ashland's shares have declined 21.2% year-to-date, underperforming the S&P 500, which is up 12.5% [11] - The company trades with a forward P/E of 14.7, indicating potential value, but has a high PEG ratio of 3.8, suggesting it may not be cheap by growth metrics [13][15] Additional Insights - The company is benefiting from foreign exchange tailwinds and a $30 million restructuring program expected to generate $7.5 million in savings in Q4 [6]