SZAP(SZ:000061) Xin Hua Cai Jing·2025-09-12 11:17Group 1: Corn Market - The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs maintains the corn supply and demand forecast for 2025/26 consistent with the previous month, while reducing the 2024/25 corn import estimate to 3 million tons due to import quota management and tariffs imposed by the U.S. [1] - Domestic corn production conditions are favorable, with good growth expected in September, although there are concerns about excess rainfall in certain regions leading to potential lodging risks [1] - The new corn harvest is approaching, and traders are actively selling their remaining stocks, resulting in stable but slightly weak prices for old corn [1] Group 2: Soybean Market - The soybean import estimate for 2024/25 is raised to 104 million tons, an increase of 5.76 million tons from the previous month, driven by improved crushing margins for oil mills [2] - The soybean crushing volume is adjusted upwards to 98.89 million tons, with overall crop growth in major production areas being normal and favorable [2] - The supply and demand forecast for 2025/26 remains unchanged from the previous month [2] Group 3: Cotton Market - The average price for domestic 3128B grade cotton for the 2024/25 market year is reported at 14,963 yuan per ton, with the Cotlook A index averaging 79 cents per pound, both within estimated ranges [2] - The cotton import estimate for 2024/25 is lowered to 1.05 million tons, with ending stocks adjusted down to 7.88 million tons [2] - The cotton yield for 2025/26 is increased to 2,211 kg per hectare, with total production raised to 6.36 million tons, supported by favorable weather conditions [2] Group 4: Edible Oil Market - The edible oil production estimate for 2024/25 is raised by 730,000 tons due to increased soybean imports and crushing volumes [3] - The edible oil production forecast for 2025/26 is adjusted upwards to 30.69 million tons, influenced by increased cottonseed oil production [3] - The market is expected to become more active as the consumption season approaches, aided by upcoming holidays [3] Group 5: Sugar Market - The supply and demand forecast for sugar remains consistent with the previous month, with good growth conditions for sugarcane in southern regions, while drought affects beet production in Xinjiang [3] - The sugar production in Brazil is accelerating, maintaining a market outlook of production exceeding consumption, with international sugar prices fluctuating near four-year lows [3]