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参与1985年《广场协议》的前日本官员警告:低利率+弱日元将推高通胀
智通财经网·2025-09-12 11:27

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that Japan's low interest rates and weak yen may accelerate inflation, necessitating the Bank of Japan's consideration of these factors in its monetary policy [1][2] - The former senior currency diplomat emphasizes that Japan's interest rates are excessively low, contributing to the yen's weakness, which could lead to higher import costs and inflation [1] - The Bank of Japan has recently raised short-term interest rates to 0.5% after a decade of negative interest rates, aiming for a sustainable 2% inflation target [1] Group 2 - The former diplomat suggests that if the Bank of Japan gradually tightens its monetary policy and reduces the interest rate differential with the U.S., the yen's weakness could be corrected [2] - Historical context is provided, indicating that after the Plaza Accord, the yen appreciated significantly, leading to a public backlash and subsequent monetary easing that contributed to Japan's asset bubble [2] - There is a growing recognition that a stronger yen could be an opportunity for Japan to reduce its reliance on exports and shift towards a new growth model [2] Group 3 - There is a notable shift in sentiment regarding the strong yen, with increasing awareness of the impact of a weak yen on the cost of living for ordinary Japanese households [3] - Nomura's recent research indicates that if the Bank of Japan incorporates the uncertainties from the new government coalition into its monetary policy, the likelihood of a rate hike in October may decrease, with the next expected hike in January 2026 [3]