重阳问答︱如何看待最近债券市场不断下跌的情况

Group 1 - The bond market has experienced a decline since September, with the 10-year government bond yield surpassing 1.8% and the 30-year yield exceeding 2.1%, marking new lows in the current bond market cycle [1] - The recent regulatory changes regarding redemption fees for mutual funds have triggered a wave of redemptions, particularly affecting pure bond funds, which are primarily used by institutional investors for diversification and liquidity management [2] - The increase in redemption fees, particularly for holdings less than 7 days, is expected to significantly reduce the attractiveness of bond funds for institutions, leading to a redemption trend [2] Group 2 - The potential for further declines in the bond market appears limited, with the configuration value gradually returning as the macroeconomic fundamentals in China do not support a prolonged bear market [3] - Institutional behavior indicates that most funds redeemed from bond funds will eventually flow back into the bond market, suggesting that the impact of redemptions is more about timing rather than a fundamental shift [3] - The current yield on new 10-year government bonds is comparable to the dividend yield of the A-share market, indicating that the configuration value of bonds is becoming more apparent [3]