Group 1 - The Norwegian central bank's upcoming monetary policy meeting on September 18 faces a complex decision-making environment due to a disconnect between recent economic data and policy signals [1] - Norway's inflation rate remains above the central bank's target of 2%, and wage growth expectations for 2025 have exceeded the previous forecast of 4.5%, indicating an accelerating economic expansion [1] - The current policy interest rate of 4.25% is not considered "overly tight" and aligns with the current economic conditions, suggesting that concerns about "overly tight" policy may lack basis [1] Group 2 - The Norwegian krone has appreciated by 3.65% against the euro since early August and has risen 5.5% since April, which typically has a dampening effect on inflation [1] - However, the effects of currency appreciation have not yet fully manifested in price data, indicating that exchange rate movements alone do not provide sufficient justification for a rate cut [1] - Market participants believe that the central bank's core policy dilemma lies in balancing persistent inflation pressures with the potential deflationary effects of the krone's appreciation, leading to a preference for maintaining a hawkish stance and delaying rate cuts [2]
通胀高企与本币走强 挪威央行9月降息存疑
Xin Hua Cai Jing·2025-09-12 11:51