就业数据取代通胀成焦点！美联储降息预期巩固，市场押注年内或降息三次

Group 1 - The U.S. Treasury bonds are expected to continue their upward trend, marking a potential fourth consecutive week of gains, supported by unemployment claims data that solidify market expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut next week [1] - The 10-year Treasury yield slightly increased by 2 basis points to 4.04%, while the 2-year yield rose to 3.55%, indicating a longer-term downward trend in yields since February [1] - Market participants are now focusing on the potential for further easing measures for the remainder of the year, with an 80% probability of two additional rate cuts by year-end [3] Group 2 - Economists predict that the Federal Reserve will likely implement three rate cuts this year, with nearly 90% of respondents expecting a modification in the post-meeting statement to emphasize labor market risks [6] - The unemployment rate rose to 4.3% in August, and recent data revisions indicate a significant slowdown in hiring, challenging previous assessments of a robust labor market [6] - A majority of respondents believe that the Federal Reserve faces upward risks regarding both unemployment and inflation, with expectations for the federal funds rate to drop to 3.5% by June 2026 [9] Group 3 - There is a growing concern about political pressure influencing monetary policy decisions, with 71% of respondents expressing worry that political loyalty may affect future policy decisions [11] - The financial markets have shown a relatively calm response to these political threats, with the 10-year Treasury yield declining and market inflation expectations remaining stable [11] - Economists warn that the pressure for monetary easing from the executive branch could dangerously approach a scenario of stagflation, where economic growth stagnates while inflation remains high [11]