WTO总干事证实美国平均关税18.4% 全球贸易面临压力测试｜全球贸易观察

Core Viewpoint - The WTO is facing unprecedented challenges due to unilateral actions by the U.S., leading to concerns about the future of the global trade system, with WTO Director-General Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala emphasizing the need for reform and resilience in the current trade framework [1][2]. Group 1: Global Trade Dynamics - The average U.S. tariff rate has increased from 2.4% at the beginning of the year to 18.4% following recent agreements [1]. - Approximately 72% of global goods trade is still operating under basic "Most-Favored-Nation" tariff conditions, a decrease from 80% at the start of the year [2]. - Despite the challenges, global goods trade is projected to grow by 0.9% this year, an improvement from earlier predictions of a 0.2% contraction [1]. Group 2: Economic Outlook - The U.S. is experiencing economic risks, with the average actual tariff rate reaching 17.4%, the highest since 1935 [3]. - Economic growth in the U.S. is expected to slow down, with annualized growth rates projected to drop from over 3% in Q2 to 1.2%-1.3% in Q3 and Q4 [3]. - The potential for further U.S. dollar depreciation exists, which could lead to prolonged high interest rates from the Federal Reserve [4]. Group 3: Trade Policy Implications - The new tariff policies are anticipated to reduce the openness of the U.S. economy, with a projected 1.7 percentage point decrease in the share of goods exports in GDP by 2030 [4]. - A decline in economic openness is generally associated with reduced productivity, raising concerns about the long-term impact of protectionist policies on global economic growth [4].