黄金周前遇冷？美涨欧跌，航运市场上演“冰火两重天”

Core Insights - The global shipping market is experiencing dramatic price differentiation, with the Shanghai Containerized Freight Index (SCFI) at 1398.1 points, down 46.33 points, and the China Containerized Freight Index (CCFI) at 1125.3 points, down 2.1% [1][2] Group 1: Market Trends - North American shipping routes are seeing stable demand, leading to continued price increases, while European routes lack growth momentum, resulting in price adjustments [3][4] - In September, trans-Pacific routes have seen price increases, contrasting with declines in European and Mediterranean routes, creating a stark divide in the shipping market [4][5] - The price for shipping from Shanghai to the U.S. West Coast and East Coast has risen to $1923/FEU and $2866/FEU, respectively, marking increases of 17.0% and 9.7% [5] Group 2: European Market Challenges - European shipping prices continue to face significant declines, with the NCFI for European routes down 7.9% and SCFI for European routes down 11.2% [6] - Despite high port congestion in major European ports, the overall shipping capacity remains excessive, leading to a lack of support for price recovery [6] Group 3: Shipping Companies' Strategies - Major shipping companies like Maersk, Hapag-Lloyd, and MSC have announced service suspensions in response to declining freight rates and cargo volumes, indicating a strategic reduction in capacity to avoid oversupply [7] - The traditional peak season is not materializing as expected, with reduced order volumes leading to a forecast of limited price rebounds by year-end [7] Group 4: Regulatory Impact - Starting October 14, the U.S. will impose port fees on Chinese-built vessels, which could significantly impact global shipping dynamics, as approximately 98% of vessels are linked to Chinese supply chains [9][10] - Chinese shipping companies are adjusting strategies to mitigate the impact of new U.S. port fees, including shifting capacity to other regions and increasing business in non-China routes [9]