Nucor And Reliance Seen As Steel's Strongest Defenders Against Market Challenges

Industry Overview - The North American steel sector is facing weak pricing and muted demand growth, leading to cautious investor sentiment due to a lack of clear catalysts [1] - Hot Rolled Coil (HRC) prices have decreased by 6% quarter-to-date, while scrap prices have remained stable, failing to alleviate margin pressures [2] - Real demand in the sector remains weak, and inventories are deemed adequate, prompting a cautious approach from buyers [4] Market Dynamics - Mills have gained market share from imports, supported by structural improvements in metal spreads compared to pre-pandemic and 2024 averages [3] - Utilization rates have risen above 79%, aided by a significant drop in imports, which fell by 16% month-over-month and 21% year-over-year in August, alongside a 2 million-ton increase in domestic shipments this year [3] Future Outlook - JP Morgan anticipates that the uncertain pricing environment, range-bound trading, and weak demand will persist through the fourth quarter [4] - Smaller fall outages compared to last year and rising production present additional challenges, with stronger growth potentially reliant on multiple rate cuts and clearer trade policies with Mexico and Canada, which are unlikely to materialize soon [5] Company Performance - JP Morgan models a 4% earnings decline for Nucor and a 6% decline for Steel Dynamics in the third quarter, citing weaker pricing and shipment risks [6] - Nucor's results are expected to remain resilient due to softer Brazilian pig iron tariffs, which may offset pressure on plate pricing [6] - Steel Dynamics is facing challenges from lingering coated inventory and ongoing losses at its aluminum rolling mill [6] Investment Ratings - JP Morgan maintains Neutral ratings for Steel Dynamics with a price forecast of $150, Cleveland-Cliffs at $10, and Commercial Metals Company at $54 [6] - Nucor is rated Overweight with a price forecast of $165, while Reliance Steel & Aluminum also holds an Overweight rating with a price forecast of $350 [6]