World oil market to see higher surplus after OPEC+ hike, IEA says

Core Viewpoint - The International Energy Agency (IEA) predicts a significant increase in world oil supply, contrasting with OPEC's outlook, with a potential surplus expected by 2026 [1][2][4] Supply and Demand Dynamics - World oil supply is projected to rise by 2.7 million barrels per day (bpd) in 2025, an increase from the previous forecast of 2.5 million bpd, followed by an additional rise of 2.1 million bpd in 2026 [1] - The IEA has revised its demand growth forecast for this year to 740,000 bpd, up by 60,000 bpd, driven by resilient deliveries in advanced economies [3] - OPEC maintains a more optimistic demand forecast, expecting an increase of 1.29 million bpd this year, nearly double the IEA's estimate [5] Market Conditions - The increase in supply from OPEC+ and external producers has raised concerns about a surplus, impacting oil prices negatively [2] - Oil prices have declined, with Brent crude trading just below $67 a barrel, although this is an increase from a low of near $58 in April 2025 [6] Inventory Projections - The IEA anticipates global inventories will rise by an average of 2.5 million bpd in the second half of 2025, indicating a significant oversupply situation [7] - For the following year, the report suggests that supply may exceed demand by approximately 3.3 million bpd, driven by growth from OPEC+ and other producers like the U.S., Canada, Brazil, and Guyana [7]