财政部：财政政策始终留有后手 未来政策发力空间依然充足

Core Insights - The fiscal strength of the country has significantly increased since the "14th Five-Year Plan," with a notable enhancement in the structure of fiscal expenditures and proactive macroeconomic regulation [1][2] - The total public budget revenue is expected to reach 106 trillion yuan, an increase of 17 trillion yuan or approximately 19% compared to the "13th Five-Year Plan" [1] - The total public budget expenditure is projected to exceed 136 trillion yuan, marking an increase of 26 trillion yuan or 24% compared to the previous five-year period [1] Fiscal Policy and Economic Growth - Fiscal policy has shifted from active to more proactive, becoming a crucial support for stable economic growth, with an average growth rate of 5.5% over the past four years [2] - The deficit ratio has increased from 2.7% to 3.8%, with a further rise to 4% this year, and new local government special bond quotas amounting to 19.4 trillion yuan have been arranged [2] - Over 10 trillion yuan in tax reductions and deferred payments have been implemented, expanding fiscal policy space [2] Focus on Domestic Demand - The Ministry of Finance aims to innovate fiscal and tax policy tools to stimulate consumption and expand effective investment, tapping into the potential of domestic demand [3] Social Welfare Investments - More than 70% of the national public budget expenditure is allocated to social welfare, with significant investments in education (20.5 trillion yuan), social security and employment (19.6 trillion yuan), health (10.6 trillion yuan), and housing security (4 trillion yuan) [4] - The central government has arranged nearly 50 trillion yuan in transfer payments to local governments over five years to strengthen financial support [5] Debt Management - The Ministry of Finance has effectively managed existing debt and curbed new debt, leading to a gradual reduction in hidden debt risks [7] - As of the end of August this year, 4 trillion yuan of the newly increased 6 trillion yuan special debt limit has been issued, with an average interest cost reduction of over 2.5 percentage points [8] - The total government debt is projected to be 92.6 trillion yuan by the end of 2024, with a debt-to-GDP ratio of 68.7%, indicating that the overall government debt level is within a reasonable range [8]