机构加大美联储降息力度押注

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the market widely anticipates the Federal Reserve to announce interest rate cuts in the upcoming meetings, with a focus on the number and magnitude of cuts by the end of the year [1][2] - The latest inflation data shows that the US CPI rose by 2.9% year-on-year in August, aligning with market expectations, while core CPI remained stable at 3.1%, reinforcing expectations for rate cuts in October and December [1][2] - Analysts predict a high probability of two consecutive rate cuts of 25 basis points each in September and October, with employment data influencing the decision for a potential December cut [1][3] Group 2 - The employment market shows signs of weakness, with August non-farm payrolls increasing by only 22,000, significantly below expectations, which raises the likelihood of the Fed cutting rates to stimulate employment [2][3] - The anticipated rate cuts are expected to inject new liquidity into the market, benefiting risk assets such as US stocks and gold, as the Fed's "risk management-style rate cuts" could enhance global market risk appetite [3][4] - Despite the positive outlook for US stocks and gold, there are concerns about high valuations in the stock market, suggesting limited short-term upside, while the bond market may experience fluctuations [4]