Primary trend of this bull market is higher, says Goldman's Tony Pasquariello

Market Overview - The current market is characterized as a bull market, with a primary upward trend driven by better-than-expected earnings, particularly from US Mega Cap tech companies [2][4] - The S&P 500 has increased by 7% in the first half of the year, while the "magnificent 7" tech stocks have surged by 28% [2] Federal Reserve and Economic Growth - The market anticipates that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates into a cyclical acceleration, suggesting a favorable environment for stocks [3][4] - Projections indicate three rate cuts this year (September, October, December) and two more next year, leading to a funds rate of approximately 3.125% by next June [4] Economic Indicators - US GDP growth is expected to be 1.3% this year, with a trend growth of around 1.8% next year and 2.1% the year after [5] - The labor market is being monitored, but the expectation is that current uncertainties will pass, allowing for a return to growth [6] Market Valuation and Earnings - The current price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is high at 22x, placing it in the 96th percentile historically, indicating a concentrated and top-heavy market [8][9] - Since 2009, the NASDAQ has seen total returns of over 2200%, with 75% attributed to earnings growth, 16% to dividends, and only 9% to multiple expansion [10] Technology Sector Insights - Recent developments in the tech sector, such as Oracle's significant market cap increase, highlight the ongoing relevance of AI infrastructure [11][12] - Major tech companies are actively linking revenue growth to AI advancements, which is expected to continue driving market performance [12]