Wall Street’s future hinges on a risky bet about what the American economy will do next

Market Performance - U.S. stocks are nearing record levels, with the S&P 500 rising 0.1% from its all-time high, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 188 points (0.4%) and the Nasdaq composite increased by 0.5% [1] - Wall Street is experiencing its best week in five, driven by expectations of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut [1][2] Federal Reserve Expectations - Anticipation of the Federal Reserve cutting its main interest rate for the first time this year is boosting stock prices, with mortgage rates already declining in response [2] - Recent job market reports suggest a balance that could prompt the Fed to act, indicating a slowdown that is not severe enough to trigger a recession while keeping inflation in check [3] Company-Specific Developments - RH's stock fell 4.7% after reporting lower-than-expected profit and revenue, alongside a reduced revenue forecast due to tariff uncertainty and a struggling housing market [7] - Oracle's shares dropped 4.1%, although it had previously surged due to excitement over AI-related contracts [7] - Super Micro Computer's stock rose 2.9% after announcing high-volume shipments of AI-related equipment [8] - Microsoft shares increased by 2% following the acceptance of its proposed changes to the Teams platform by EU regulators, resolving an antitrust investigation [9] Global Market Trends - Japan's Nikkei 225 index rose 0.9% to a record high, while Hong Kong's Hang Seng index increased by 1.2% [10] - European markets experienced slight declines after gains in Asia [9] Bond Market Insights - The yield on the 10-year Treasury note increased to 4.07% from 4.01%, recovering some losses from earlier in the week [11]