Fed meeting is main focus of next week, 25bps cut is likely, says Vital Knowledge's Adam Crisafulli

Central Bank Decisions - The Federal Reserve (Fed) is expected to be the most significant event next week, with other central banks like BOJ, BOE, and Bank of Canada also in focus [1] - A 25 basis point rate cut is widely anticipated, but the market will be more interested in the Fed's updated dot plot and qualitative commentary from Powell [2][3] - Markets have already priced in 25 basis point cuts at each of the final three meetings of the year, indicating limited room for more dovish guidance from the Fed [4] Economic Data - Recent economic data shows signs of a softening economy, particularly in the labor market, with disappointing job reports and a significant jump in weekly claims [5][6] - Consumer sentiment has also dropped, reinforcing expectations for the Fed to ease policy, while inflation remains above the Fed's target despite cooler-than-expected PPI data [7][8] Company Insights - FedEx is highlighted as a crucial earnings report next week, serving as a barometer for U.S. and global economic activity, particularly sensitive to trade dynamics [9] - There is concern regarding inventory levels as companies may have brought forward inventory to avoid tariffs, which could lead to inflationary pressures if replenishment occurs at higher post-tariff rates [10] - The closing of the dimminimous loophole is impacting many e-commerce companies, adding pressure to their operations [11] Trade Talks - Expectations for significant developments in China trade talks are low, with only headlines anticipated rather than any major agreements [12]