美联储降息面临艰难平衡

Group 1 - The U.S. Labor Department's preliminary revision indicates that from April 2024 to March 2025, the U.S. added 911,000 fewer jobs than initially reported, suggesting a weaker job market than previously expected [1] - The revision shows that the leisure and hospitality sector lost 176,000 jobs, professional and business services lost 158,000 jobs, and retail lost 126,000 jobs compared to initial estimates [1] - Analysts believe that the job market's weakness reflects conditions prior to the tariffs imposed by the Trump administration, with the trade war further dampening job growth [1] Group 2 - The revised data has led to increased expectations for the Federal Reserve to initiate a new round of interest rate cuts, although the Fed faces a difficult choice between aggressive cuts that could worsen inflation and cautious cuts that might deepen the recession [2] - Market predictions suggest a high likelihood of at least a 25 basis point cut in September, with only a 10% chance of a 50 basis point cut [2]