Crude Prices Tumble as IEA Boosts Its Global Oil Surplus Estimate

Group 1 - Crude oil and gasoline prices are experiencing significant declines due to concerns over a global supply glut, with the IEA increasing its 2026 global oil surplus estimate to 3.33 million bpd, which is 360,000 bpd higher than previously anticipated [2][3] - The rise in weekly jobless claims in the US to a 3.75-year high is raising concerns about economic growth and energy demand, contributing to the downward pressure on crude prices [2] - Geopolitical tensions in Europe and the Middle East are providing some support for crude prices, as escalations could disrupt oil supplies from these regions [4] Group 2 - OPEC+ has agreed to raise crude production by 137,000 bpd starting in October, which is significantly lower than the previous increases of 547,000 bpd in August and September, indicating a cautious approach to market conditions [5] - Reduced Russian crude output due to ongoing conflicts and sanctions is tightening global oil supplies, which is supportive of prices, with Russian crude-processing runs dropping to 5.09 million bpd, the lowest in over 3.25 years [5][6] - The ongoing war in Ukraine raises concerns about potential additional sanctions on Russian energy exports, which could further reduce global oil supplies [6]