Di Yi Cai Jing·2025-09-13 00:47Core Viewpoint - The U.S. labor market risks are increasing, prompting the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) to shift its focus towards stabilizing growth and initiating a monetary easing cycle, with expectations of interest rate cuts in the near future [1][2][4]. Economic Indicators - The unemployment rate rose to 4.3% in August, and revised data indicated a loss of jobs in June, highlighting a cooling labor market [2][3]. - A benchmark revision showed that over 910,000 jobs were added in the past year compared to initial reports, indicating a significant downward adjustment in employment figures [2][3]. Federal Reserve's Stance - The Federal Reserve's position has shifted since summer, with officials increasingly prioritizing employment stability over inflation concerns [2][3]. - Recent market pricing indicates a high probability of rate cuts in September, October, and December, with expectations of 25 basis point reductions in each meeting [4][5]. Predictions and Market Reactions - Morgan Stanley and Deutsche Bank have adjusted their forecasts, now predicting three rate cuts of 25 basis points each in the remaining meetings of the year, reflecting a more aggressive easing stance [4][5]. - The market anticipates that the Federal Reserve may adopt a more neutral policy stance, with potential for continued rate cuts into 2026 [5]. Economic Forecasts - The upcoming quarterly economic projections from the Federal Reserve will provide insights into inflation, unemployment, and interest rate expectations, which are crucial for market direction [3][4].