Nat-Gas Prices Tumble as US Gas Inventories Build

Core Insights - Natural gas prices have declined to a one-week low due to a higher-than-expected increase in weekly stockpiles, with inventories rising by 71 billion cubic feet (bcf) for the week ending September 5, surpassing expectations of 68 bcf and the five-year average of 56 bcf [1][6] Production and Demand - US natural gas production is at a near-record high, with the EIA raising its 2025 production forecast by 0.2% to 106.63 bcf/day from the previous estimate of 106.40 bcf/day [3] - As of Thursday, US (lower-48) dry gas production was reported at 107.3 bcf/day, reflecting a year-over-year increase of 7.0% [4] - Lower-48 state gas demand was recorded at 71.7 bcf/day, showing a slight decline of 1.2% year-over-year [4] Weather Impact - Forecasts indicate warmer weather in the US, which is expected to increase natural gas demand from electricity providers due to higher air conditioning usage [2] - The Edison Electric Institute reported a year-over-year increase in US electricity output of 1.03% to 83,003 GWh for the week ending September 6, and a 2.97% increase to 4,264,559 GWh over the past 52 weeks [5] Inventory Levels - As of September 5, natural gas inventories were down 1.3% year-over-year but were 6.0% above the five-year seasonal average, indicating sufficient supply levels [6] - European gas storage was reported to be 80% full as of September 9, compared to the five-year seasonal average of 86% for this time of year [6]