Crude Prices Retreat on Fears of a Global Supply Glut

Group 1: Price Movements - October WTI crude oil closed down -1.30 (-2.04%) and October RBOB gasoline closed down -0.0287 (-1.43%) [1] - Crude oil and gasoline prices fell sharply due to concerns about a global crude supply glut and a rise in US jobless claims [2][3] Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The IEA increased its 2026 global crude surplus estimate to 3.33 million bpd, which is +360,000 bpd higher than previously anticipated [3] - OPEC+ agreed to raise crude production by 137,000 bpd starting in October, which is significantly lower than the previous increases [5] - Reduced Russian crude output and Ukrainian attacks on Russian refineries have tightened global oil supplies, supporting prices [5] Group 3: Geopolitical Factors - Escalation of geopolitical risks in Europe and the Middle East is bullish for crude prices, with tensions rising due to recent military actions [4] - The conflict in the Middle East, a region that supplies about one-third of global oil, poses additional risks to oil supply stability [4]