民生证券-煤炭行业周报：煤价企稳反弹，基本面改善下有望延续涨势-250913

Group 1: Coal Market Overview - Coal prices have stabilized and rebounded, with expectations for continued upward momentum due to improving fundamentals [1] - Domestic coal prices have shown a consistent increase, while port coal prices have stabilized and rebounded during the week [1] - Supply-side analysis indicates a reduction in excess production capacity of approximately 230 million tons due to production inspections, with an additional 400 million tons of production halted due to lack of approval for capacity increases [1] Group 2: Demand Dynamics - Current demand for thermal coal is transitioning into the off-season, but non-electric demand is expected to gradually release, particularly in the upcoming "Golden September and Silver October" period [1] - Coal chemical consumption has maintained a year-on-year growth rate of over 10% since the beginning of the year, increasing to over 15% since May [1] - Policies aimed at eliminating outdated capacity in the refining industry are expected to enhance the competitiveness of coal chemicals against oil-based chemicals, thereby supporting new demand for coal [1] Group 3: Inventory and Pricing Trends - Port inventories have decreased due to production cuts, leading to a seasonal destocking effect, although there remains a significant imbalance in shipping [1] - Current coal prices are around 700 yuan per ton, with traders showing low purchasing sentiment due to the transition between peak and off-peak seasons [1] - The combination of declining port inventories and continued supply contraction under production restrictions is expected to support a sustained increase in coal prices, potentially returning to levels seen in Q3 2024 [1] Group 4: Coking Coal Market Insights - Coking coal prices are expected to remain weak and stable in the short term, with supply recovering as previously halted mines resume production [2] - The first round of coking coal price reductions has compressed profit margins, and steel mills are primarily purchasing based on demand without significant improvement in terminal demand [2] - Anticipated supply reductions due to production inspections and the upcoming peak season suggest potential upward price movement for coking coal [2] Group 5: Investment Recommendations - Investment recommendations include focusing on high spot price elasticity stocks, such as Lu'an Environmental Energy, and stable growth stocks like Jinko Coal and Huayang Co., Ltd. [2] - Companies expected to benefit from production recovery include Shanxi Coal International, while industry leaders with stable performance include China Shenhua, China Coal Energy, and Shaanxi Coal and Chemical Industry [2] - Additionally, companies benefiting from nuclear power growth, such as CGN Mining, are highlighted as strong investment opportunities [2]